THE COMPETITIVE PICTURE

Who’s on the rise?

The front runners. The movers. The battles behind the numbers.

Statistical strength and uncertainty, or explore the legacy field score

STATISTICAL MODEL

CONNECTED DRIVERS122Ranked within this competition group

CLASS EVENTS84Within the selected event pool

MODELBradley–TerryOpponent adjusted · regularized

STABILITY CHECK64 refitsOptimization converged

Checked against later, unseen events

Train on the earliest 80% of event dates, test on the remaining 20%: 0.168 Brier score versus 0.250 for a 50/50 guess. Lower is better. 15 test events, 160 eligible non-tied pairs with known, connected drivers. This split beats the simple baseline.

Strength, with room for doubt

Dot = fitted score · line = 90% event-resampling range · dashed line = 1000 baseline

Overlapping ranges mean the apparent ordering is unstable. These measure sensitivity to the indexed events, not a guarantee of future performance. * Fewer than five rated starts.

Evidence-based standings

122 drivers · rank within selected group

RANK	DRIVER / CAR	MODEL SCORE	90% STABILITY RANGE	STARTS	OPPONENTS
1	Tom Harrington#602007 Honda Civic SIIndexed results only	1306	1254–1359	19	42
2	Shawna Bowman#942008 Honda Civic SiIndexed results only	1219	1163–1261	33	64
3	Ryan Finch#1912009 Honda CivicProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1202	Too little history	4	18
4	Chris Raglin#912009 Honda Civic SiIndexed results only	1181	1128–1236	6	22
5	Samuel Gesuelle#57Chevrolet cobaltIndexed results only	1181	1083–1237	5	9
6	Jason Fuller#22000 Toyota Camry LEProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1146	Too little history	3	6
7	Evan Markewycz#27Ford Fiesta STIndexed results only	1138	1058–1211	7	27
8	Jacob Sobiech#172016 Ford Fiesta STIndexed results only	1117	1063–1185	5	20
9	Donald Carl#22024 Volkswagen Golf GTIProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1082	Too little history	1	9
10	Dwight Wood#8012003 Nissan SentraProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1080	Too little history	1	10
11	Ian Soderbom#4202008 Volkswagen RabbitProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1080	Too little history	2	8
12	Hubert Borowski#972008 Honda CivicProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1073	Too little history	2	14
13	Brad Turnbull#452015 Ford Fiesta STProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1072	Too little history	1	7
14	Josh Armantrout#332007 Mini Cooper SIndexed results only	1071	923–1157	6	35
15	Chang Ho Kim#242000 Acura IntegraProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1068	Too little history	1	15
16	Logan Altmyer#932008 Honda Civic SiProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1064	Too little history	1	5
17	Jeff Wagenknecht#811997 Toyota CamryProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1059	Too little history	1	1
18	Edwin Cunill#2Ford FocusProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1059	Too little history	1	2
19	Jerry Ashmore#202007 Volkswagen passatProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1058	Too little history	4	15
20	Hal Denham#322006 Mini Cooper SProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1054	Too little history	3	29
21	Antonio Serracino#412007 Honda Civic SiProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1053	Too little history	1	10
22	Jason Meyer#151996 Honda CivicProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1050	Too little history	1	15
23	Brian Schrowang#4582008 Honda FitProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1049	Too little history	4	13
24	Casey Hamm#412010 Mazda Mazdaspeed 3Provisional · fewer than 5 starts	1046	Too little history	2	12
25	BRIAN PEEL#3Saturn IonProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1045	Too little history	1	5
26	Mike Davis#92003 Nissan Sentra Ser SpecVProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1042	Too little history	2	11
27	Ben Deschane#912006 Mini Cooper SProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1039	Too little history	3	11
28	Brett Nelson#8082001 Volkswagen JettaProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1039	Too little history	1	10
29	John Cornett#61Honda CivicProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1039	Too little history	1	6
30	Samantha Steelman#482014 Ford Fiesta STProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1038	Too little history	3	17
31	Vincent Dozeman#312007 Honda Civic SIProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1036	Too little history	1	9
32	Scott Francis#162007 Honda Civic SIProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1035	Too little history	1	7
33	James Rust#361998 Pontiac Grand prixProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1034	Too little history	1	8
34	Phillip Bunker#3212018 Honda Civic HB SportProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1032	Too little history	1	15
35	Ken Nevins#862015 Subaru WRXProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1029	Too little history	1	4
36	Brian Cather#582004 Mini Cooper SProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1026	Too little history	1	10
37	Jake Wolfe#8882003 Acura RSX Type SProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1024	Too little history	1	6
38	Patrick Lindsey#162007 Honda Civic SiProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1023	Too little history	1	4
39	Rudy Bowen#1602007 Honda Civic Si HarringtonmobileProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1023	Too little history	1	5
40	Ray Davis#6842002 Mini CooperProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1022	Too little history	1	15
41	Johnny Brewster#1602007 Honda Civic SiProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1022	Too little history	3	11
42	Austin Hulings#662015 Honda Civic SIProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1021	Too little history	2	7
43	Sherrod James#612007 Honda CivicProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1017	Too little history	1	8
44	Connor Johnson#612007 Honda Civic SiProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1016	Too little history	4	9
45	Nick Lindsay#162007 Honda Civic SiProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1016	Too little history	1	7
46	Justin Jones#122005 Pontiac Grand PrixProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1016	Too little history	1	3
47	Fred Hemm#162008 Honda BlueberryProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1014	Too little history	2	12
48	Dan Sanford#422001 Volkswagen Golf GTIProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1014	Too little history	1	7
49	Kim Hapgood#124Acura IntegraProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1013	Too little history	1	15
50	Dylan Burgett#1641999 Toyota CorollaProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1013	Too little history	1	7
51	Wallace Wood#2452004 Nissan SentraProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1012	Too little history	1	10
52	Shokhrukh Shokirov#22000 Ford FOCUSProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1008	Too little history	1	3
53	Caleb Warren#7772002 Nissan sentra ser spec vProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1008	Too little history	2	16
54	Brian Mecsko#1442007 Honda Civic SIProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1005	Too little history	1	12
55	Aaron Vincer#421Car not publishedProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1004	Too little history	2	9
56	Trevor Graham#182012 Ford FiestaProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	1004	Too little history	1	15
57	Christopher Orsolini#832015 Mazda 3Provisional · fewer than 5 starts	1002	Too little history	1	8
58	Chris Whitney#162016 Ford Fiesta STProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	998	Too little history	1	10
59	LeeAnn Lozier#12006 Honda CivicProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	996	Too little history	1	3
60	Brandon Wilhelm#392007 Ford FocusIndexed results only	995	926–1064	7	12
61	Mike Bommarito#651999 Toyota corollaProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	995	Too little history	1	15
62	Geoffrey Hamilton#1422001 Volkswagen GTIProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	994	Too little history	1	7
63	Samuel Smith#1532015 Ford Fiesta STProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	992	Too little history	4	9
64	Peter Cauwels#482000 AudiProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	992	Too little history	1	2
65	Steve Page#402008 Chevrolet CobaltProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	991	Too little history	1	5
66	Lee Reynolds#3371996 Toyota TercelProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	989	Too little history	1	9
67	Jackson Garrett#322018 Ford Focus STProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	989	Too little history	1	5
68	Adam Ghulam#1602007 Honda Civic SIProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	989	Too little history	1	4
69	Joshua Strohmeyer#1132018 Ford FocusProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	988	Too little history	1	2
70	Chris Crafford#112006 Acura rsx typeSIndexed results only	988	921–1050	24	49
71	Bennett Creamer#4412010 Mazda Speed 3Provisional · fewer than 5 starts	986	Too little history	1	9
72	Vince Moellering#842000 Volkswagen GolfProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	986	Too little history	1	15
73	Chris Ollenburg#1162016 Ford Fiesta STProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	984	Too little history	1	10
74	Kerri Cain#41Chevrolet CruzeProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	982	Too little history	1	6
75	Alicia Harrington#1602007 Honda Civic SIIndexed results only	980	935–1023	8	25
76	Cherese Wyatt#5982019 Mini CooperProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	978	Too little history	2	8
77	Parker Sattler#152004 Dodge NeonProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	975	Too little history	1	7
78	Kolt Goodson#132005 Pontiac Grand PrixProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	972	Too little history	1	3
79	Shepherd Howe#192013 Ford Fiesta STProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	972	Too little history	2	7
80	Aaron Huffman#13Mazda 3Provisional · fewer than 5 starts	969	Too little history	1	6
81	Brock Stiver#162007 Honda Civic siProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	969	Too little history	1	5
82	Brock Yoder#402006 Chevrolet Cobalt LSProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	967	Too little history	1	15
83	Keith Lightfoot#992007 Nissan Sentra SERProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	966	Too little history	1	8
84	Jesse Wilson#252018 Ford FusionProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	966	Too little history	1	5
85	Joseph Condol#5Hyundai SonataProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	964	Too little history	1	5
86	Peter Stein#731999 Toyota CamryProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	962	Too little history	3	11
87	Noel Carmona#172015 Mini Cooper Hardtop 4 DoorProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	962	Too little history	1	6
88	Stuart Rotblat#1842000 Volkswagen GolfProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	958	Too little history	1	15
89	David Barbulescu#142009 Toyota CorollaProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	958	Too little history	2	12
90	Shane Spradling#162006 Honda Civic SIProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	958	Too little history	3	18
91	Emily Wood#172016 Ford Fiesta STProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	958	Too little history	1	12
92	Ken Krenk#112009 Volvo C30Provisional · fewer than 5 starts	955	Too little history	1	7
93	Daniel Highsmith#212008 Mitsubishi LancerProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	955	Too little history	3	8
94	Evan Appleby#112008 Mini Cooper Clubman SProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	955	Too little history	1	1
95	Mark Waldrop#1Mazda 3Provisional · fewer than 5 starts	952	Too little history	3	5
96	Greg Frederiksen#31992 Toyota Celica GTProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	949	Too little history	1	2
97	Stephen Otis Lee Miller#4332002 Ford FOCUS SVTProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	949	Too little history	1	15
98	Michael Davis#9962002 Dodge NeonProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	944	Too little history	3	5
99	Dereck Cottingham#612008 Honda BlueberryProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	944	Too little history	1	8
100	Tami Tackett#952008 Chevrolet AveoProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	940	Too little history	1	15
101	Jessica Miller#172004 Mazda 3Provisional · fewer than 5 starts	937	Too little history	1	5
102	Rebecca Smith#13Ford Fiesta STProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	936	Too little history	1	6
103	Edward Lepez#202012 Volkswagen GolfProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	935	Too little history	1	7
104	Steve Christensen#352008 Ford FusionProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	933	Too little history	1	8
105	DONNA ENGLAND#1952008 Chevrolet Aveo SProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	930	Too little history	1	15
106	Anna Jean McGuire-Jones#152005 Pontiac Grand PrixProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	929	Too little history	1	3
107	Ryan Hard#242006 Volvo v50Provisional · fewer than 5 starts	928	Too little history	1	2
108	Chelsea Osborn#492000 AudiProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	928	Too little history	1	2
109	Jacob Strohmeyer#562022 Toyota Corolla HatchbackProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	925	Too little history	1	2
110	Matthew Elmore#62007 Honda CivicProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	924	Too little history	3	13
111	Grant Pendleton#182016 Hyundai VelosterProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	921	Too little history	1	1
112	Caitlyn Campbell#9992007 Acura TLProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	917	Too little history	1	4
113	Josh Netherton#47Honda FitProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	915	Too little history	2	8
114	Eric Dieterich#5132019 Mini CooperProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	914	Too little history	4	25
115	john mayfield#1111990 Ford festivaProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	912	Too little history	2	4
116	David Davis#70Nissan SentraProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	912	Too little history	4	14
117	Kane Nale#442010 Mazda Speed 3Indexed results only	902	849–946	18	34
118	Joshua Claytor#222013 Nissan CubeProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	889	Too little history	2	3
119	Michael Weber#12009 Honda FitProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	881	Too little history	2	10
120	Alexander Nicholas#8632014 Volkswagen JettaProvisional · fewer than 5 starts	878	Too little history	3	16
121	Robert Campbell#92007 Acura TLIndexed results only	867	801–928	19	36
122	Cameron Campbell#992007 Acura TLIndexed results only	734	683–791	10	28

The science, assumptions and limitations

1. Compare like with like

Each class and event pool is modeled separately. Every scored class result becomes comparisons against the other classified drivers in that event. A win is 1, a tie is ½, a loss is 0. No-time entries, solo classes and duplicate driver entries within one class are excluded.

2. Estimate opponent-adjusted strength

We fit a Bradley–Terry model: P(A beats B) = 1 / (1 + exp(θB − θA)). Our implementation minimizes weighted logistic loss plus ½Σθ². Each comparison weighs 1/(field size − 1), so a driver contributes one unit per event. Regularization pulls short or perfect records toward the baseline. Display score = 1000 + (400 / ln 10) × θ; a 400-point gap means 10:1 fitted pairwise odds. This is separate from F1 points and the legacy field score.

3. Show uncertainty and test forward

We refit 64 times after resampling whole events with replacement and show the middle 90% of scores. Resampling keeps opponents from one race together. Missing drivers in a resample return to the baseline. These are stability ranges, not Bayesian credible intervals; sparse records can remain poorly identified. We also fit on the earliest 80% of event dates and evaluate later results using weighted Brier loss. Test results cover known, connected drivers only and can vary with this single split. Parameters were fixed before this check.

4. Respect the gaps

Drivers without a chain of shared opponents form separate competition groups; we do not predict between them. The model assumes stable ability across its selected history and cannot observe practice, weather, tires, mechanical failures, or unindexed events. Five starts is a display threshold, not proof of reliability. The ranking is an experimental statistical estimate, not an official SCCA championship or an assessment of a person.

5. Cars and win probabilities

The optional driver–car model adds a strongly regularized car term (penalty 2Σβ²). A car label needs at least eight entries and three drivers before receiving an adjustment; otherwise it adds zero. Labels remove the year and normalize punctuation, but do not resolve every trim or spelling. Shared labels are not guaranteed identical equipment. Driver choice and car preparation are confounded: a positive term does not prove the car caused better results.

Field win chances use the Plackett–Luce choice formula, exp(θdriver + βcar) / Σfield exp(θdriver + βcar). It is a scenario conditional on this field and all entries posting comparable scored results. It excludes breakdown/DNF risk, is not calibrated race-winning odds, and must sum to 100% before rounding. Adding a competitor changes everyone’s chance. The car model’s holdout is reported separately.